According to Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of research, the likelihood of a Solana (SOL) exchange-traded fund (ETF) listing in the United States this year is even higher than a popular betting market’s optimistic forecast.
A Look at Polymarket’s Forecast
On January 1st, cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket stated that the odds of a US Solana ETF listing in 2025 are around 77%. However, Sigel believes that this forecast is "underpriced," indicating that he expects even higher chances of an ETF listing.
Industry Expectations and Regulatory Developments
Sigel’s optimism reflects the industry-wide expectations of more crypto ETF listings in the US after President-elect Donald Trump’s November election win. Pro-crypto Trump has expressed his desire to make America "the world’s crypto capital," sparking hopes for increased regulatory support for the cryptocurrency sector.
Understanding Prediction Markets
Prediction markets work by allowing users to trade contracts tied to specific events, with prices fluctuating dynamically based on expected outcomes. Polymarket’s projected ETF listing odds have already increased to approximately 84% as of January 2nd, according to its website.
The Road to Regulatory Approval
In June, VanEck and rival asset manager 21Shares submitted requests to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for permission to list spot Solana ETFs. However, in August, the SEC reportedly challenged the asset managers’ plans, citing concerns that SOL qualified as a security rather than a commodity.
The Challenge of Conforming to a Similar Structure
Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) ETFs are the only two types of cryptocurrency ETFs permitted to trade on US exchanges. These ETFs use an atypical "grantor trust" structure typically designed for funds that passively hold a single type of commodity. Issuers believe that success may depend on whether proposed Solana ETFs can conform to a similar structure.
Trump’s Presidential Win and Its Impact
Industry analysts see Trump’s presidential win as a green light for more than half a dozen proposed crypto ETFs waiting on regulatory approval to list in the US. In November, shortly after Trump’s victory in the US presidential race, Sigel reportedly said that the odds of the US greenlighting a SOL ETF in 2025 are now "overwhelmingly high."
The Rise of Polymarket and Its Betting Volume
Polymarket is the most popular cryptocurrency betting platform, clocking nearly $2 billion in trading volume in December alone, according to data from Dune Analytics. During the US elections in November, betting platforms proved more accurate than traditional polling, forecasting not only Trump’s win but also his party’s sweep of the US House and Senate.
A Banner Year for Cryptocurrency Markets?
Bettors are wagering that 2025 will be a banner year for cryptocurrency markets, with BTC and ETH hitting all-time highs and several new types of crypto ETFs listing in the US. With Trump’s presidential win and the increasing popularity of prediction platforms like Polymarket, it seems that the odds are indeed in favor of a Solana ETF listing in the United States.
The Impact of Regulatory Support
Trump’s pro-crypto stance has sparked hopes for increased regulatory support for the cryptocurrency sector. While challenges remain, including conforming to a similar structure as existing BTC and ETH ETFs, industry analysts believe that success is within reach.
Conclusion
With Polymarket’s forecast indicating an 84% chance of a US Solana ETF listing in 2025, it seems that the odds are indeed in favor of such an event. As the cryptocurrency sector continues to grow and mature, regulatory support will be crucial for its development. With Trump’s presidential win and the increasing popularity of prediction platforms like Polymarket, it remains to be seen whether 2025 will indeed be a banner year for cryptocurrency markets.
Related Stories
- Betting Markets Predict Bullish 2025 for Crypto: Betting platforms are indicating that 2025 will be a bullish year for cryptocurrency markets.
- Favorable Listing Prospects: Industry analysts believe that favorable listing prospects exist for several proposed crypto ETFs in the US.
Sources
- Polymarket: https://www.polymarket.com/
- Dune Analytics: https://duneanalytics.com/
