As Bitcoin prices continue to surge over the past two weeks, the cryptocurrency market is once again filled with predictions that Bitcoin will break the $100,000 threshold. This price rally has already pushed Bitcoin to nearly $75,000, sparking investor hopes for a historic breakthrough. To assess the credibility of this prediction, BlockInsight recently published a comprehensive on-chain data analysis report, attempting to reveal the true market condition through objective data.
Market Insights Through On-Chain Metrics
BlockInsight’s analysis team examined several key on-chain indicators to evaluate current market dynamics. The report points out that Bitcoin’s actual network activity shows healthy growth, but still displays significant gaps compared to the bull market peaks of 2021 and 2023.
“The current daily active addresses count is approximately 1.1 million, showing a notable increase from last month, but still below the historical peak of 1.35 million,” BlockInsight stated in the report. “This indicates that despite high market sentiment, the breadth of network usage has not yet reached extreme historical levels.”
Notably, Bitcoin’s UTXO (Unspent Transaction Output) age distribution shows that the proportion of long-term holders (holding for more than one year) has risen to a record high. This suggests that despite price increases, most long-term investors are choosing to continue holding rather than taking profits.
“The behavior of long-term holders is often an important indicator of market cycles,” BlockInsight analyzed. “The holding pattern currently observed is similar to the performance seen in the middle of previous major bull markets, rather than typical characteristics of top regions.”
Institutional Fund Flows and OTC Trading
BlockInsight’s data indicates that institutional-grade funds continue to flow into the cryptocurrency market. According to their statistics, large Bitcoin transactions exceeding $50 million have increased significantly over the past 30 days, indicating enhanced institutional participation.
Furthermore, over-the-counter (OTC) desk data supports this view. BlockInsight compiled anonymous transaction data from major global OTC service providers, finding that large Bitcoin buy orders remain consistently strong, with buying order volume exceeding selling order volume by a substantial margin.
“Institutional investors typically conduct large transactions through OTC channels to reduce market impact,” the report notes. “The current buyer-dominated landscape in the OTC market indicates that despite significant price increases in the public market, institutional funds are still actively allocating to Bitcoin.”
Derivatives Market Signals
On the derivatives front, BlockInsight’s data analysis indicates that the current market state is far from overheated. While Bitcoin futures funding rates are positive, they remain at moderate levels, well below the rates commonly seen at historical bull market tops.
“Funding rates are an important indicator for measuring market leverage sentiment,” BlockInsight explains. “Current levels indicate optimistic expectations for upward movement, but speculative leverage has not yet reached dangerous levels.”
Options market data is equally noteworthy. BlockInsight observed that the implied volatility for Bitcoin $100,000 call options has decreased from last month, indicating that despite the ambitious price target, the market has increased certainty about its achievability.
Macroeconomic Factor Assessment
BlockInsight’s report also analyzes key macroeconomic factors affecting Bitcoin’s price. The initiation of a global central bank rate-cutting cycle at the end of 2024, the continued attraction of funds to US Bitcoin spot ETFs, and the gradual adoption of crypto assets by institutional investors as portfolio allocations collectively form the foundation of the current bull market.
“The current macroeconomic environment has similarities to the 2020-2021 bull market, but also key differences,” BlockInsight points out. “Increased regulatory clarity and greater participation from traditional financial institutions provide a more solid foundation for the market, but may also mean that price volatility could be less dramatic than in previous cycles.”
Feasibility Assessment of the $100,000 Prediction
After comprehensively evaluating multiple indicators, BlockInsight offers a cautious yet balanced view on the prediction of Bitcoin breaking $100,000.
“On-chain data supports the view of Bitcoin’s continued mid-term upward trajectory, but does not support a scenario of explosive growth in the short term,” the report concludes. “Based on the current adoption curve and the rate of institutional fund inflows, Bitcoin touching $100,000 within 2025 is a reasonably possible scenario, but may take several months to achieve, rather than weeks.”
BlockInsight reminds investors that despite the positive long-term trend, the market may still face significant adjustments in the short term. The report points out that in the past two bull markets, Bitcoin experienced multiple substantial corrections on its way to new highs, and the current cycle may not be an exception.
“We have observed a notable increase in hedging demand in the OTC derivatives market recently, indicating that some large investors are preparing for potential short-term volatility, despite remaining optimistic about the long-term outlook,” BlockInsight adds.
Amid the noisy market predictions, BlockInsight’s data-driven analysis provides investors with a more objective and calm perspective, emphasizing the importance of focusing on fundamental indicators and technical adoption beyond popular forecasts.
