In a historic milestone, Bitcoin (BTC) has surpassed $98,000 for the first time in history. The surge follows reports that President-elect Donald Trump’s team is considering establishing a dedicated White House position to oversee cryptocurrency policy.
A New All-Time High: $98,367
On November 21st, BTC’s price jumped by over 4.50% to reach an all-time high of $98,367 (data from Bitstamp). This significant increase prompted the crypto market capitalization to rise 3.65% and reach the $3.17 trillion milestone.
The "Trump Trade" Euphoria: Could Bitcoin Reach $100,000 by 2024?
The "Trump Trade" euphoria could have a profound impact on Bitcoin’s price trajectory. Crypto betting platform Polymarket has reported that 92% of bets favor a six-figure record high for BTC, with many predicting that it will reach its long-anticipated $100,000 price target by the end of 2024.
Growing Calls for Higher Prices in 2025
Meanwhile, analysts at Bernstein Research have predicted that Bitcoin could hit $200,000 by the end of 2025. Their bullish prediction stems from rising institutional demand, positive regulatory shifts, and pro-crypto appointments by Donald Trump.
Drivers of Growth: Institutional Demand and Regulatory Clarity
Several factors are driving Bitcoin’s potential growth:
- Rising institutional demand: Companies like MicroStrategy plan to raise $42 billion for Bitcoin acquisitions over the next three years.
- Positive regulatory shifts: The proposed establishment of a national Bitcoin reserve, with Senator Cynthia Lummis introducing a draft bill advocating for the acquisition of up to 5% of Bitcoin’s total supply over the next five years.
- Pro-crypto appointments: Donald Trump’s team is considering establishing a dedicated White House position to oversee cryptocurrency policy.
A National Bitcoin Reserve: A Potential Game-Changer
The proposed establishment of a national Bitcoin reserve has the potential to represent more than $100 billion worth of investments. This move could have a significant impact on Bitcoin’s price trajectory, with analysts predicting that it will drive up demand and push prices higher.
Spot Bitcoin ETF Cumulative Flows
Source: Farside Investors
Historical Patterns: A Regression Model Predicts $150,000 in 2025
Bitcoin’s post-halving performance and historical patterns identified by the Logarithmic Regression Model suggest that it could peak out at around $150,000 in 2025. This prediction is based on the model’s analysis of previous halvings:
- 2012 halving: Bitcoin rallied 8,000% after the 2012 halving.
- 2016 halving: Bitcoin rallied 2,900% after the 2016 halving.
- 2020 halving: Bitcoin rallied 560% after the 2020 halving.
If a similar trajectory plays out in 2025, a rally of 300–400% from the April 2024 halving aligns perfectly with the $150,000 upper band of the regression model.
A Bearish Divergence: Could Bitcoin’s Rally Peak at $100,000?
On the more cautious note, Bitcoin appears to be forming a bearish divergence similar to its price action in 2021. This raises concerns that its current rally may peak at $100,000 before a significant correction ensues.
Bitcoin’s Price Action in 2021
In 2021, Bitcoin peaked at $69,000, while its RSI displayed a bearish divergence—higher prices paired with declining RSI. This divergence preceded a sharp 77% drop in Bitcoin’s price, touching its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) during the decline.
A Similar Setup Emerges
A similar setup could be emerging now, with Bitcoin trading near $97,500 and RSI showing signs of weakening momentum. If history repeats, Bitcoin’s current bull cycle could top out around the psychologically significant $100,000 level, followed by a corrective move.
An Interim Target: The 50-Week EMA
An interim target for such a pullback would be the 50-week EMA at around $60,000. This suggests a potential correction of over 40% in 2025.
Historical Data Suggests Testing the Ascending Trendline
Interestingly, the $60,000 level aligns with a key ascending trendline that has acted as support throughout Bitcoin’s recent bull cycle. Historical data suggests that testing this trendline could flush out weak hands, paving the way for strong buyer interest at discounted prices.
The subsequent rebound could target higher levels, including the predicted $100,000 and potentially even $150,000 in 2025.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s price trajectory is highly uncertain, with several factors driving growth and potential corrections. As the market continues to evolve, it will be essential to monitor developments and adjust strategies accordingly.
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Disclaimer
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Always conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions.
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